Snow odds 2026

Will it snow at the Christmas market?

We matched 21 winters of daily snow records to the 2026 dates of 208 Christmas markets across Europe. Here are the odds of a white visit at each one, and the handful of places where snow is close to a sure thing.

December days with snow on the ground

13%~~24%~~

Average across 67 weather stations in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, 2011–2025 against 1991–2005.

Towns208

Measured by stations135

Winters checked2005/06 to 2025/26

Updated24 October 2026

The surest bets

Where a white weekend is likely

The chance that a Friday-to-Sunday trip, inside the market's 2026 dates, has snow on the ground or fresh snow on at least one of the three days.

01RovaniemiFinland95%

02RørosNorway90%

03SeiffenGermany74%

04Ravenna GorgeGermany68%

05EinsiedelnSwitzerland64%

06MariazellAustria59%

07TallinnEstonia58%

08St. GallenSwitzerland56%

09TurkuFinland46%

10OsloNorway44%

Weather-station towns only. Dates for Rovaniemi and St. Gallen are estimated.

The big names

Famous markets, honest odds

The big percentage is the chance of seeing snow on a weekend visit. Munich, Innsbruck and Kraków give you about a one-in-three shot. In Paris and London, pack an umbrella, not a sledge.

Innsbruck37%Snow on the ground on 24% of market daysWeather station

Munich37%Snow on the ground on 24% of market daysWeather station

Kraków36%Snow on the ground on 29% of market daysWeather station

Salzburg35%Snow on the ground on 26% of market daysWeather station

Nuremberg24%Snow on the ground on 16% of market daysWeather station

Dresden21%Snow on the ground on 16% of market daysWeather station

Berlin18%Snow on the ground on 13% of market daysWeather station

Basel18%Snow on the ground on 13% of market daysWeather station

Hamburg17%Snow on the ground on 11% of market daysWeather station

Vienna17%Snow on the ground on 13% of market daysWeather station

Copenhagen13%Snow on the ground on 9% of market daysWeather station

Cologne13%Snow on the ground on 8% of market daysWeather station

Prague11%Snow on the ground on 11% of market daysWeather station

Budapest11%Snow on the ground on 6% of market daysModelled

Strasbourg10%Snow on the ground on 6% of market daysWeather station

Colmar10%Snow on the ground on 5% of market daysWeather station

Bruges10%Snow on the ground on 6% of market daysWeather station

Edinburgh8%Snow on the ground on 2% of market daysModelled

Paris5%Snow on the ground on 2% of market daysWeather station

London3%Snow on the ground on 2% of market daysModelled

Weather station measured snow depth every morningModelled calibrated Copernicus data, no suitable station nearby

Giant lit Christmas tree in falling snow on Wrocław's Market Square, with Christmas market stalls and old town houses behind

Windmill-shaped stall lit up and dusted with snow at Wrocław's Christmas market, in front of painted town houses

Snow on Wrocław's Market Square during the Christmas market. Wrocław's market runs from 20 November 2026 to 7 January 2027, and a weekend visit has a 22% chance of snow. Photos: ChristmasWanders.

Christmas Eve

Best odds of a white Christmas Eve

How often there was snow on the ground on the morning of 24 December, out of the last 21 years. Even in Vienna and Munich it happened in only about one year in seven.

Vienna 14%, Munich 14%, Prague 5%, Strasbourg 0%. Not every market is open on Christmas Eve, so check the opening dates first.

RovaniemiFinland100%

RørosNorway95%

SeiffenGermany62%

EinsiedelnSwitzerland62%

OsloNorway57%

MariazellAustria52%

TallinnEstonia52%

Ravenna GorgeGermany47%

UK markets

Will it snow at a UK Christmas market?

Probably not. No UK market has more than an 8% chance of snow on a weekend visit this year. Newcastle and Edinburgh come top, while Bristol and Exeter sit at 1%. For a real chance of snow you have to travel: Munich gives you 37%, Kraków 36% and Oslo 44%.

Every figure is the chance of snow on a Friday-to-Sunday visit inside the market's 2026 dates. Belfast is the only UK town here with a suitable weather station nearby; the rest use our calibrated model. Lincoln's market runs for three days, 3 to 5 December, with no full weekend, so it isn't ranked.

Writing about one of these markets? We can send the figures for your town, with comment. Email hello@christmaswanders.com.

EdinburghScotland8%

NewcastleEngland8%

BelfastNorthern Ireland6%

LeedsEngland6%

YorkEngland5%

NottinghamEngland5%

ManchesterEngland4%

BirminghamEngland4%

ChesterEngland4%

LondonEngland3%

GlasgowScotland3%

BathEngland3%

LiverpoolEngland2%

WinchesterEngland2%

CardiffWales2%

BristolEngland1%

ExeterEngland1%

The long view

The markets are losing their snow

Across 67 long-running weather stations near Christmas market towns in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, snow lay on the ground on 24% of December days between 1991 and 2005. Between 2011 and 2025 it was 13%.

7 of the last 15 Decembers had snow on the ground less than one day in ten. In the 15 years before 2006, that happened once.

24%1991–2005

13%2011–2025

1991200020102025

Share of December days with at least 1 cm of snow on the ground at the morning reading, averaged across stations. White bars are 2011 onwards. Snow varies a lot from year to year, and December 2010 was exceptionally snowy.

Every town

All 208 towns, country by country

Weekend visit is the chance of snow on a Friday-to-Sunday trip. Days with snow is the share of market days with snow on the ground. Dates marked est. are based on last year's dates until the organisers confirm. Towns marked not rated have no suitable station nearby, and the model's grid sits too far above them to give a fair number. Where the only station sits well above or below the town, the table says so. A higher station means the town is likely a bit less snowy, a lower one a bit snowier.

Download all 208 towns as a spreadsheet (CSV)

Austria12 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Mariazell	19 Nov – 20 Dec	59%	53%	52%	Station
St. Wolfgang	20 Nov – 20 Dec	44%	34%	33%	Station
Bad Ischl	20 Nov – 20 Dec	44%	34%	33%	Station
Innsbruck	13 Nov – 6 Jan	37%	24%	24%	Station
Salzburg	19 Nov – 1 Jan	35%	26%	19%	Station
Steyr	13 Nov – 24 Dec	29%	21%	14%	Station
Velden am Wörthersee	20 Nov – 20 Dec	27%	23%	24%	Station
Linz	21 Nov – 24 Dec	23%	14%	0%	Station
Graz	20 Nov – 24 Dec	18%	14%	10%	Station
Vienna	13 Nov – 7 Jan	17%	13%	14%	Station
Schloss Hof	14 Nov – 20 Dec	16%	10%	5%	Station
Hallstatt	8 Dec	–	38%	29%	Station

Belgium6 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Durbuy	20 Nov – 3 Jan est.	16%	6%	5%	Modelled
Ghent	3 Dec – 3 Jan	10%	7%	10%	Station
Bruges	20 Nov – 4 Jan est.	10%	6%	10%	Station
Antwerp	4 Dec – 3 Jan est.	10%	6%	10%	Station
Brussels	27 Nov – 3 Jan	8%	4%	10%	Modelled
Liège	27 Nov – 2 Jan est.	8%	6%	5%	Station

Bosnia and Herzegovina1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Sarajevo	20 Nov – 23 Dec est.	51%	38%	52%	Modelled

Bulgaria2 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Sofia	20 Nov – 27 Dec est.	46%	30%	62%	Modelled
Plovdiv	27 Nov – 3 Jan est.	22%	10%	14%	Modelled

Croatia6 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Zagreb	28 Nov – 7 Jan	20%	10%	0%	Modelled
Osijek	28 Nov – 30 Dec est.	17%	6%	5%	Modelled
Dubrovnik	28 Nov – 2 Jan est.	6%	0%	0%	Modelled
Opatija	27 Nov – 5 Jan est.	–	–	–	Not rated
Split	26 Nov – 6 Jan est.	–	–	–	Not rated
Zadar	23 Nov – 31 Dec est.	3%	1%	0%	Modelled

Czech Republic5 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Český Krumlov	21 Nov – 3 Jan est.	37%	23%	14%	Station
Brno	27 Nov – 23 Dec (main square)	31%	26%	29%	Station
Ostrava	21 Nov – 5 Jan est.	31%	24%	14%	Station
Olomouc	20 Nov – 23 Dec est.	23%	15%	19%	Station
Prague	28 Nov – 6 Jan	11%	11%	5%	Station

Denmark3 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Odense	28 Nov – 13 Dec	15%	12%	17%	Station
Copenhagen	13 Nov – 3 Jan	13%	9%	15%	Station
Aarhus	14 Nov – 31 Dec est.	6%	6%	8%	Station

Estonia1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Tallinn	20 Nov – 6 Jan	58%	46%	52%	Station

Finland3 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Rovaniemi	20 Nov – 23 Dec est.	95%	95%	100%	Station
Turku	28 Nov – 20 Dec	46%	37%	43%	Station
Helsinki	27 Nov – 22 Dec	35%	30%	43%	Station

France15 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Obernai	27 Nov – 31 Dec est.	17%	8%	0%	Station
Montbéliard	21 Nov – 24 Dec est.	17%	12%	0%	Station
Kaysersberg	27 Nov – 20 Dec	13%	7%	0%	Station
Eguisheim	27 Nov – 30 Dec	13%	7%	0%	Station
Mulhouse	20 Nov – 27 Dec	12%	7%	0%	Station
Riquewihr	27 Nov – 20 Dec	11%	10%	5%	Station
Strasbourg	27 Nov – 24 Dec	10%	6%	0%	Station
Colmar	23 Nov – 29 Dec	10%	5%	0%	Station
Arras	27 Nov – 27 Dec est.	10%	2%	10%	Modelled
Ribeauvillé	5 Dec – 13 Dec est.	10%	5%	0%	Station
Metz	20 Nov – 30 Dec	8%	6%	0%	Station
Amiens	20 Nov – 30 Dec	6%	1%	5%	Modelled
Paris	14 Nov – 3 Jan	5%	2%	5%	Station
Lille	18 Nov – 30 Dec	4%	3%	10%	Station
Reims	25 Nov – 27 Dec	2%	1%	0%	Station

Germany65 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Seiffen	27 Nov – 20 Dec	74%	65%	62%	Station
Annaberg-Buchholz	27 Nov – 23 Dec	74%	65%	62%	Station, sits higher
Ravenna Gorge	26 Nov – 20 Dec	68%	60%	47%	Station
Augsburg	23 Nov – 24 Dec	39%	24%	5%	Station
Lindau	26 Nov – 20 Dec	39%	31%	14%	Station
Munich	20 Nov – 24 Dec	37%	24%	14%	Station
Berchtesgaden	20 Nov – 3 Jan	37%	25%	20%	Station
Festung Königstein	28 Nov – 20 Dec	36%	26%	14%	Station
Passau	24 Nov – 22 Dec	33%	19%	14%	Station
Dinkelsbühl	23 Nov – 22 Dec	33%	25%	10%	Station
Fraueninsel	26 Nov – 6 Dec	33%	28%	24%	Station
Weimar	24 Nov – 3 Jan	30%	19%	14%	Station
Wartburg (Eisenach)	28 Nov – 13 Dec	29%	16%	14%	Station
Rothenburg	20 Nov – 23 Dec	28%	20%	14%	Station
Görlitz	4 Dec – 20 Dec	27%	20%	14%	Station
Regensburg	20 Nov – 23 Dec	27%	16%	5%	Station
Bamberg	24 Nov – 23 Dec	26%	17%	10%	Station
Freiberg	24 Nov – 22 Dec	26%	19%	14%	Station
Potsdam	23 Nov – 27 Dec est.	24%	14%	14%	Station
Nuremberg	27 Nov – 24 Dec	24%	16%	5%	Station
Wiesbaden	24 Nov – 23 Dec	23%	15%	10%	Station
Dresden	25 Nov – 24 Dec	21%	16%	10%	Station
Konstanz	26 Nov – 23 Dec	21%	15%	5%	Station
Monschau	27 Nov – 20 Dec	21%	15%	5%	Station
Bautzen	27 Nov – 22 Dec	21%	18%	10%	Station
Chemnitz	27 Nov – 23 Dec	21%	16%	5%	Station
Michelstadt	27 Nov – 20 Dec	20%	12%	10%	Station
Stuttgart	25 Nov – 23 Dec	19%	13%	0%	Station
Ludwigsburg	24 Nov – 22 Dec	19%	13%	0%	Station
Ulm	19 Nov – 22 Dec	19%	12%	5%	Station
Rostock	23 Nov – 22 Dec	19%	14%	19%	Station
Erfurt	24 Nov – 22 Dec	19%	12%	14%	Station
Goslar	25 Nov – 30 Dec	18%	11%	10%	Station
Berlin	23 Nov – 31 Dec	18%	13%	19%	Station
Lüneburg	25 Nov – 29 Dec est.	18%	12%	14%	Station
Kassel	23 Nov – 30 Dec	18%	10%	5%	Station
Hamburg	23 Nov – 23 Dec	17%	11%	10%	Station
Leipzig	24 Nov – 23 Dec	17%	12%	10%	Station
Lübeck	23 Nov – 30 Dec	16%	11%	19%	Station
Schwerin	23 Nov – 30 Dec	16%	11%	19%	Station
Quedlinburg	25 Nov – 22 Dec	16%	10%	5%	Station
Magdeburg	23 Nov – 29 Dec	15%	11%	10%	Station
Bremen	23 Nov – 23 Dec	14%	10%	10%	Station
Frankfurt	23 Nov – 22 Dec	14%	8%	10%	Station
Baden-Baden	26 Nov – 6 Jan	14%	11%	0%	Station
Mainz	26 Nov – 23 Dec est.	14%	8%	10%	Station
Wernigerode	20 Nov – 22 Dec	13%	9%	5%	Station
Würzburg	27 Nov – 23 Dec	13%	8%	0%	Station
Münster	23 Nov – 23 Dec	13%	10%	10%	Station
Braunschweig	25 Nov – 29 Dec	13%	8%	5%	Station
Cologne	13 Nov – 23 Dec	13%	8%	10%	Station
Aachen	20 Nov – 23 Dec	12%	8%	5%	Station
Esslingen	24 Nov – 22 Dec	12%	8%	0%	Station
Trier	20 Nov – 22 Dec	11%	8%	10%	Station
Essen	13 Nov – 23 Dec	11%	6%	10%	Station
Hannover	23 Nov – 22 Dec est.	11%	8%	10%	Station
Freiburg	19 Nov – 23 Dec	10%	6%	0%	Station
Celle	23 Nov – 27 Dec	10%	7%	10%	Station
Dortmund	19 Nov – 30 Dec	9%	7%	10%	Station
Traben-Trarbach	20 Nov – 2 Jan	9%	6%	5%	Station
Saarbrücken	16 Nov – 23 Dec	9%	6%	0%	Station
Gengenbach	27 Nov – 23 Dec	8%	4%	0%	Station
Heidelberg	23 Nov – 22 Dec	8%	6%	0%	Station
Rüdesheim am Rhein	19 Nov – 23 Dec	8%	6%	10%	Station
Düsseldorf	20 Nov – 30 Dec	7%	6%	10%	Station

Greece3 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Trikala	20 Nov – 5 Jan est.	9%	4%	14%	Modelled
Thessaloniki	6 Dec – 4 Jan est.	1%	1%	5%	Modelled
Athens	21 Nov – 5 Jan est.	1%	0%	0%	Modelled

Hungary4 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Győr	27 Nov – 22 Dec est.	16%	6%	0%	Modelled
Pécs	27 Nov – 24 Dec est.	12%	6%	5%	Modelled
Debrecen	20 Nov – 23 Dec	11%	5%	5%	Modelled
Budapest	13 Nov – 1 Jan	11%	6%	10%	Modelled

Iceland1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Hafnarfjörður	13 Nov – 22 Dec est.	51%	35%	52%	Modelled

Ireland3 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Galway	6 Nov – 30 Dec est.	2%	0%	0%	Modelled
Waterford	13 Nov – 23 Dec	2%	0%	0%	Modelled
Cork	Late Nov – Dec est.	1%	0%	0%	Modelled

Italy10 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Vipiteno	27 Nov – 6 Jan	–	–	–	Not rated
Brunico	27 Nov – 6 Jan	–	–	–	Not rated
Bressanone	27 Nov – 6 Jan	–	–	–	Not rated
Merano	27 Nov – 6 Jan	–	–	–	Not rated
Bolzano	27 Nov – 6 Jan	–	–	–	Not rated
Trento	20 Nov – 6 Jan est.	–	–	–	Not rated
Levico Terme	21 Nov – 6 Jan est.	–	–	–	Not rated
Govone	14 Nov – 20 Dec	26%	14%	19%	Modelled
Verona	20 Nov – 27 Dec est.	6%	0%	0%	Modelled
Montepulciano	21 Nov – 6 Jan est.	2%	0%	0%	Modelled

Latvia1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Riga	27 Nov – 3 Jan	41%	26%	24%	Modelled

Lithuania1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Vilnius	28 Nov – 27 Dec	52%	36%	38%	Modelled

Luxembourg1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Luxembourg City	20 Nov – 3 Jan	8%	6%	5%	Station, sits lower

Malta1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Għajnsielem	13 Dec – 3 Jan est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled

Netherlands5 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Valkenburg	13 Nov – 30 Dec est.	12%	7%	10%	Station
The Hague	3 Dec – 23 Dec	8%	7%	10%	Station
Maastricht	27 Nov – 27 Dec	8%	6%	5%	Station
Amsterdam	3 Dec – 27 Dec est.	7%	7%	10%	Station
Deventer	12 Dec – 13 Dec	–	10%	10%	Station

Norway3 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Røros	3 Dec – 6 Dec	90%	88%	95%	Station
Oslo	7 Nov – 3 Jan	44%	32%	57%	Station
Bergen	20 Nov – 22 Dec	35%	30%	24%	Station

Poland7 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Katowice	20 Nov – 6 Jan	42%	33%	29%	Station
Kraków	27 Nov – 1 Jan	36%	29%	33%	Station
Warsaw	20 Nov – 6 Jan	29%	24%	24%	Station
Toruń	20 Nov – 20 Dec	26%	18%	29%	Station
Gdańsk	20 Nov – 23 Dec	25%	17%	32%	Station
Wrocław	20 Nov – 7 Jan	22%	18%	14%	Station
Poznań	20 Nov – 6 Jan	21%	17%	14%	Station

Portugal3 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Óbidos	27 Nov – 3 Jan est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled
Lisbon	27 Nov – 3 Jan est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled
Funchal	1 Dec – 10 Jan	–	–	–	Not rated

Romania7 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Brașov	27 Nov – 3 Jan est.	61%	53%	67%	Modelled
Sibiu	13 Nov – 3 Jan	44%	33%	57%	Modelled
Cluj-Napoca	20 Nov – 1 Jan est.	25%	17%	29%	Modelled
Bucharest	28 Nov – 27 Dec est.	17%	11%	14%	Modelled
Timișoara	29 Nov – 7 Jan	15%	9%	14%	Modelled
Craiova	13 Nov – 3 Jan	13%	9%	14%	Modelled
Oradea	27 Nov – 25 Dec est.	13%	8%	5%	Modelled

Serbia1 town

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Novi Sad	4 Dec – 6 Jan est.	14%	10%	10%	Modelled

Slovakia2 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Košice	30 Nov – 30 Dec est.	43%	30%	38%	Modelled
Bratislava	26 Nov – 3 Jan	14%	8%	0%	Modelled

Slovenia2 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Bled	20 Nov – 23 Dec est.	30%	23%	19%	Station
Ljubljana	27 Nov – 15 Jan	26%	23%	5%	Station

Spain6 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Madrid	26 Nov – 30 Dec est.	1%	0%	0%	Modelled
Barcelona	27 Nov – 22 Dec est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled
Vigo	14 Nov – 10 Jan est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled
Seville	7 Nov – 22 Dec est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled
Málaga	30 Nov – 6 Jan est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled
Marbella	27 Nov – 4 Jan est.	0%	0%	0%	Modelled

Sweden2 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Stockholm	21 Nov – 23 Dec est.	39%	35%	38%	Station
Gothenburg	14 Nov – 30 Dec	24%	16%	14%	Station

Switzerland8 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Einsiedeln	27 Nov – 6 Dec	64%	60%	62%	Station
St. Gallen	26 Nov – 24 Dec est.	56%	48%	33%	Station
Bern	28 Nov – 23 Dec est.	38%	28%	10%	Station
Zurich	19 Nov – 23 Dec	30%	23%	5%	Station, sits higher
Lucerne	3 Dec – 20 Dec est.	27%	20%	20%	Station
Montreux	20 Nov – 24 Dec est.	22%	15%	10%	Station
Basel	26 Nov – 23 Dec	18%	13%	0%	Station
Geneva	19 Nov – 24 Dec	16%	10%	0%	Station

United Kingdom18 towns

Town	Market dates 2026	Weekend visit	Days with snow	Christmas Eve	Data
Edinburgh	14 Nov – 3 Jan	8%	2%	5%	Modelled
Newcastle	19 Nov – 23 Dec	8%	2%	10%	Modelled
Belfast	14 Nov – 22 Dec	6%	4%	5%	Station
Leeds	19 Nov – 23 Dec	6%	1%	0%	Modelled
York	12 Nov – 21 Dec	5%	1%	0%	Modelled
Nottingham	12 Nov – 31 Dec	5%	1%	0%	Modelled
Manchester	6 Nov – 3 Jan	4%	0%	0%	Modelled
Birmingham	5 Nov – 24 Dec	4%	1%	5%	Modelled
Chester	18 Nov – 22 Dec	4%	0%	0%	Modelled
London	19 Nov – 3 Jan	3%	2%	5%	Modelled
Glasgow	5 Nov – 24 Dec est.	3%	0%	0%	Modelled
Bath	26 Nov – 13 Dec	3%	0%	5%	Modelled
Liverpool	21 Nov – 3 Jan est.	2%	0%	0%	Modelled
Winchester	20 Nov – 22 Dec	2%	0%	0%	Modelled
Cardiff	12 Nov – 23 Dec	2%	0%	0%	Modelled
Bristol	6 Nov – 23 Dec est.	1%	0%	5%	Modelled
Exeter	13 Nov – 13 Dec	1%	0%	5%	Modelled
Lincoln	3 Dec – 5 Dec est.	–	5%	0%	Modelled

How we worked it out

Snow on the groundAt least 1 cm at the morning reading.

Fresh snowAt least 1 cm more than the morning before.

Weekend visitAny Friday to Sunday inside the market's 2026 dates where at least one day had snow on the ground or fresh snow.

YearsThe same calendar dates in each of the 21 winters from 2005/06 to 2025/26.

135 towns use a weather station within 25 km and 200 m of height of the town, with at least 12 complete Decembers on record. The other 73 use Copernicus ERA5-Land, a 9 km climate model, which we calibrated against those station records because on its own it keeps snow lying too long. Where the model's grid sits far above a valley town, we don't give a number.

The long-term trend uses only stations with at least 30 of the 35 Decembers from 1991 to 2025 on record.

Four markets confirmed their 2026 dates after we ran the numbers: Innsbruck, Strasbourg, Bratislava and Edinburgh. Their opening or closing dates moved by one to three days, so their weekend and days-with-snow figures still use the earlier dates. Christmas Eve figures aren't affected. We'll recalculate all four in the 2027 update.

Sources

Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information (2026), ERA5-Land. Source: MeteoSwiss. Datenquelle: GeoSphere Austria (CC BY 4.0). Météo-France, données climatologiques de base quotidiennes, Licence Ouverte v2.0, modifiées. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). Zdroj: ČHMÚ. Źródłem pochodzenia danych jest IMGW-PIB, dane zostały przetworzone. Vir: ARSO. Finnish Meteorological Institute open data (CC BY 4.0). SMHI (CC BY 4.0). Danish Meteorological Institute (CC BY 4.0). Estonian Environment Agency (CC BY 4.0). NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, GHCN-Daily.

Using the data and photos

You're welcome to use the figures and photos. Please credit ChristmasWanders and link to this page. Download all 208 towns (CSV). Photos of Wrocław's market in the snow: tree, landscape, tree, portrait and windmill stall. For comment, or the figures for a particular town, contact Vuk Ilic, founder of ChristmasWanders, at hello@christmaswanders.com. More on the press page.

Spotted something off? Email hello@christmaswanders.com.